“So Cal RE Market Beat / Leave the Forecast to Economists” by: Saeed Ghaffari

MLS Data provided courtesy of Real Estate Legends, USA

I was on a zoom event last week, listening to Dr. Ramon Sfeir, Professor of Economics and Management Science with Chapman University, forecasting the economy for 2021.  It sounded like a daunting task to put together so much data and come up with the algorithm to project the economy, especially as accurately as Chapman does.

This is why I stick to reporting and explaining data and quoting others, instead of forecasting and projecting the economy.

Getting back to what we do, the active inventory in So Cal was pretty much steady, with a very insignificant drop, .32%.  The highest drop was in Ventura County at 4.28% and that is because the data sample is way smaller than other counties, it stands out.

The good news is that New Listings inventory went up almost every county with the exception of Ventura County that had a 5.3% drop.  LA county experienced the biggest serge in new listings with a 106.64%.  Orange, Riverside, and San Bernardino counties all had double digit increases in new listings and San Diego had a small, 1.13% increase on new listings.

Stale listings, listings with 100+ days on the market went down on all counties except for Ventura that had .88% increase on the listings in this category.

The pre-listing inventory of properties, Coming Soon inventory was up in double digits in all counties, except for San Diego that had a drop of 5.45% and Ventura that showed 5.88% increase.

Closing activity was split among the counties, LA, Riverside and Ventura were up and Orange, San Bernardino and San Diego were down. The overall average for So Cal was up by exactly 4%.

The graphs and the table on this article are provided for those who appreciate visuals in addition to plain text. 

As stated above, we let the economists do the forecasting and we’ll do the reporting of the data and interpreting its impact on different groups, sectors and the overall economy, ECON 101. Table below shows the impact of the market trends and factors on our economy.

For those who are curious to know what Chapman University’s forecast was on the housing market in So Cal, they reported a 7.1% increase in values in 2020 and forecasted 5.1% increase in 2021 with interest rates stay where they are now with minor changes, if any.

Don’t forget to take advantage of our “Find a Realtor” page on moreandmorenetwork.com to connect with an expert in your area.

When Active Inventory listings slows down (Advantage: Sellers) while New Listing on the market goes up (Advantage: Buyers), it’s an indication of an active market, in which realtors are writing offers and move the properties towards the finish line.  The two trends in opposite direction would nullify each other’s effect on the market, if their rise and fall were at the same level.

Coming Soon properties increased by over 13%. Advantage: buyers.

Closed listings had a slight increase. Good for everyone.

Don’t forget to take advantage of our Find a Realtor page on moreandmorenetwork.com to connect with an expert in your area.

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